China could soon gain the lead in submarine technology

Will the undersea status quo shift?

Image generated using Artificial Intelligence

Today, the United States (US) Navy, along with key North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) allies, maintains a distinct edge in submarine technology. America’s Virginia class submarine represents the pinnacle of modern undersea warfare. Close contenders may include the Royal Navy’s Astute class and, outside NATO, Russia’s Yasen class (aka Severodvinsk class). Notably absent from serious consideration, however, is the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) Shang class submarine, which remains behind.

These statements can be made from objective analysis. But they also reflect a pervasive world view within defence circles – that Chinese submarine technology is inherently lagging. This could change. The status quo might soon be reversed as the PRC outpaces and outmanoeuvres the competition.

So, we must ask ourselves: how long before the PRC can seize the lead in applying new technologies to submarines? The possibility is no longer unthinkable and requires cool and sober analysis in the free and open countries.

The US has been in the lead for 70 years

If we look back in time, there have always been one or two countries leading submarine development globally. The gauntlet has changed hands several times already, so we shouldn’t assume it will always be as it is now.

In World War I, early submarines emerged from being largely experimental platforms to being powerful weapons of war. Germany drove this trend, building incredibly effective (and too often forgotten) minelaying submarines, and pushing for improved oceangoing types. Not to be outdone, the Royal Navy – then the largest navy in the world – built ever larger and more ambitious designs. So, while Germany led in application, Britain, with its industrial might, was pushing the boundaries further and faster.

By World War II, the picture was very different. The Royal Navy was focused on simple but efficient designs, and Germany took the lead in both scale and innovation. It could be argued that both Japan and the US also led certain aspects, but by the end of the war, the German designs were undoubtedly the ones which most shaped postwar thinking. The German Type XXI ‘Elektroboot’ stands out as the ultimate World War II submarine design.

With Germany defeated, the gauntlet changed hands again in the 1950s. The combination of nuclear propulsion and advances in hydrodynamic thinking led to a revolutionary new generation of submarines in the US. The Soviet Union, as well as Britain, also developed theirs quickly, but the Cold War left little doubt that America was in the lead overall.

Three and a half decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and double that since the first nuclear submarine was built, the US remains in front. Britain and France, as well as Russia, also build impressive top-tier submarines, but America retains a technological edge overall. However, as history shows, it is dangerous to assume that this will always be the case.

How the PRC might realise an advantage

Stepping back, there are two aspects to becoming the dominant submarine powerhouse. The first is old-fashioned investment in industrial capacity. This leads to an increased rate of submarine construction and a reduced development cycle. The second is how new technologies, which might reshape what ‘good’ looks like, are deployed. This is where innovation and a diversified fleet of different categories of submarine can be advantageous.

There is no doubt that the PRC is building submarines at a faster rate than any other country. Perhaps the only surprise is that they aren’t pumping out nuclear submarines even faster than they are. The PRC has expanded the nuclear submarine production site at Huludao such that it can build multiple boats at once. While in the US the construction of two attack submarines per year is challenging – some might even say ambitious – the PRC launched four Shang class boats in under a year, plus numerous smaller submarines. As well as Huludao for nuclear submarines, the PRC has two major shipyards in Wuhan and Shanghai for conventional boats, each able to launch several vessels per year.

The innovation game

The notion that Chinese engineers lack the ability to innovate has become a cliché, one which overlooks substantial evidence to the contrary. While it is true that earlier defence products often relied on reverse engineering or copying foreign designs (and the acquisition of foreign technology, both legitimate and otherwise, remains a factor), the PRC’s engineering sector now demonstrates a robust capacity for research and development. This is especially evident in the field of submarine technology, where Chinese engineers are increasingly charting their own course, independent from what other countries are doing.

In some aspects of submarine technology, they have been the first movers. For example, the PRC is the first country to incorporate the new look of stealthy, angled profiles into its submarines. These are designed to reduce reflections from active sonar, similar to how low-observable aircraft were reshaped to reduce radar reflections. However, it is worth noting that the PRC wasn’t the first country to research this: Sweden has been planning it for their A26 class, and the latest German Type 212CD uses it. But neither of these European designs is in the water yet. Meanwhile, the PRC is serial producing the angular Type 039C Yuan class.

Another example, the Type 041 Zhou class submarine, brings new capabilities and potency to the People’s Liberation Army Navy. Its defining feature is believed to be a small nuclear reactor which is used as a form of air independent propulsion (AIP) in addition to the boat’s regular conventional propulsion. This concept has been widely known, and some submarines have had small reactors, but the PRC is the only country to field a submarine like this. Until now, Chinese AIP submarines relied on closed cycle ‘Stirling’ engines. This improved the boats’ underwater range at slow speeds, but they ultimately still had limited endurance. The Stirling-equipped Type 039A Yuan class boats can slip out of Chinese waters covertly, but are forced to surface before they reach the open waters of the Pacific. For the Zhou class, these limitations are history. This will make them significantly more threatening in the Pacific, and especially east of Taiwan.

Money talks

Elsewhere in the underwater arena, the PRC has far more extra-large uncrewed underwater vehicle (XLUUV) projects than any other country, including the US. This is a sign, more than anything, of investment in the future of undersea warfare.

Ultimately, both scaling up production and pushing innovation require significant financial investment. So, it is really about how much money a country is willing (or able) to spend. The PRC can innovate at a faster rate because it has the cash to invest in experimental submarines, testing ideas to an extent other leading powers can only dream of. The PRC has built at least five unique experimental or unconventional submarines in recent years. The pace seems relentless – the latest one was first reported in February this year. Meanwhile, other major submarine producers have built zero large-scale experimental submarines.

The PRC isn’t in the lead just yet. Today’s hot topics include underwater communication, quantum navigation and new generations of weapons. Today, America and its closest allies remain ahead, but for how much longer?

H I Sutton is a writer, illustrator and analyst who specialises in submarines and sub-surface systems.

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